Opinion -Cautious Outlook – No more longs – Liquidate and or raise trailing stops

Result -  Members could have saved enough money on this call to pay for a “Gold Membership” for the rest of their lives.  Saving about 6-8% on your portfolio in 7 weeks.

Original Comments are below – Done in real-time – Summarized from comments within our Trading Blog page and / or Weekend Update received by members.

Real-time call of S&P 500 market top for April – May of 2012

April 2012

The market is getting very sloppy and looks extended.  Additionally our proprietary indicators are signaling caution.  The downside could be substantial so investors / traders should adopt a cautious outlook.  After 14 weeks of bullishness the market is pausing.  Do not enter new longs and look to take some profits on your investments.  Raise your trailing stops in case the market collapses on a European debt sell-off.  Time to watch for a bit.  I have made some comments on the chart below for subscribers to consider.

Update – Part 2

May 2012

The S&P April 2, 2012 high was about 1422.  Over the last 4 weeks the S&P sold off and challenged its 50-day moving average.  Currently the S&P has bounced to the 1400-1410 area.  This could be the area that forms a lower high and therefore breaking the up-trend in the market – just in time for the “ sell in May and go away ” crowd.

The timing seems right for market uncertainty given the European sovereign debt crisis unfolding.

The S&P downside risk is to the 1280 – 1300 range.  This range near the 200-day moving average would be a better area for entering or re-entering your favorite longs.  Time to gather a good long list and wait.

Result -

During June 1-5 the S&P Index traded down into the range (1280 area) noted in the top chart  (RulingTheMarkets.com called this fall 7 weeks before) and near the 200-day moving average where longs could be re-entered for significant gains over the summer.  Members could have saved enough money on this call to pay for a “Gold Membership” for the rest of their lives.

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