2012 Investment Performance, Zynga Update and Nautilus Minerals

Investment Performance- 2012, Zynga (ZNGA) and Nautilus Minerals (NUSMF/NUS)

January 4, 2013

This is a copy of our Weekend Updated mailed FREE to our subscribers every Friday.

 Most financial newsletters are high on opinions and low on investment performance.  Just check out some of the opinions on Seeking Alpha. Most people don’t realize Seeking Alpha’s first priority is about page views and advertising clicks with investment performance coming in a distant second place.

I have had an outstanding inaugural year writing this newsletter.

2012 Investment PerformanceDetails can be seen here.

As of December 31, 2012 my investment portfolio is up about 28%, or $42,000, since March 1, 2012. The S&P 500′s total return, over the same period is 6.3%. I have outperformed the SPY by a factor of 4.3 to 1.

 Last week I posted the chart below.  With the “fiscal cliff”  uncertainty behind us the S&P 500 immediately traded through this down-trending blue line on strong volume.  The market is technically bullish.

  I have mentioned Zynga within the Weekend Update a several times.  Today within the Trading Blog I noted that I would be rounding out my partial position (50% allocation) to a full investment allocation, if it trades above $2.45.  The stock is currently trading at $2.51 so I own a full allocation within our model portfolio.  I am not going to discuss the fundamentals again here today.  I will focus on the technical analysis of the chart.

I weigh my investment decision making based on about 50% fundamental review and 50% technical analysis.  Many times company fundamentals lag behind the technical analysis of the stock chart.  Think of Cisco in March of 2000 at $70 per share – the “fundamentals” were compelling however “technical analysis” said SELL, SELL, SELL.

I believe that company secrets can never be kept and positive or negative things leak out showing up in the charts well before the “official release”.

The technical analysis of ZNGA is turning bullish as shown below.  The fundamentals have yet to catch up.  However, with new games under development and “real money poker” in the works the big money appears to be a buyer of ZNGA and no longer a seller.

1st chart – longer-term fall – signs of a bottom.

Zynga, ZNGA, technical analysis, stock market

2nd chart – the trading of the last 16 weeks – and bullish signs.

ZNGA technical review, Zynga, stock market

This type of information is included within our Gold Member recommendations in addition to fundamental analysis - become a Gold Member here today.

 Nautilus Minerals, our FLYER is up 50% in 4 weeks. (Guess I should have bought more.)  The volume has been very bullish recently.  Over the last 3 to 4 trading days a big buyer has been sitting on the bid with 50,000 share lots to buy.  Someone sells them some and they just refresh the bid again and again and again.  This will not go on forever but it is a certain sign a “big fish” is buying everything available to buy.  As I posted in the Trading Blog – if it wasn’t such a FLYER I would be buying a much larger investment position.  As I have mentioned in the past, I am waiting for a final settlement with the government of PNG before adding to my investment.  The bullish nature of the last 4 weeks leads me to the conclusion that a favorable outcome will be soon known to all parties.

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Weekend Update – Archive

  Few position updates noted below – Have a good weekend.


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Zynga (ZNGA)

Zynga, ZNGA, stock marketFull allocation – average cost $2.46
Recent Price $2.61 – Investment performance  +6.1%

This week – see comments above.

Company Description

Zynga, Inc., is a company that provides online social game services. The Company develops online games designed for play on social networking sites. It has more than 240 million monthly active users playing its games, which include CityVille, Zynga Poker, Draw Something, Hidden Chronicles, FarmVille, CastleVille, Words With Friends, Empires and Allies, Scramble With Friends, Cafe World, The Pioneer Trail, Indiana Jones Adventure World and Mafia Wars. Zynga’s games are available on a number of global platforms, including Facebook, Zynga.com, Google+, Tencent, Apple iOS and Google Android.


Half allocation remaining – average cost under $10.20
Recent price $14.90 – Investment performance +46%
Sold 1/2 of our investment for a 44% gain

This week -nothing new to note.

Company Description

YPF – is an Argentina-based integrated oil and gas company. The government of Argentina took control of the company away from Repsol early this year. The political risk surrounding his investment is VERY HIGH however, the assets are REAL. The company controls one of the largest new oil discoveries on the planet.
The stock has fallen from $55 to $10 in about 18 months on the political uncertainty. I am getting in after 90% of the government “BS” is done.

Sequenom (SQNM)

Full allocation – average cost under $3.80
Recent price $5.20 – Investment performance +37%

This week -

Fantastic bullish week technically for SQNM. On the stock chart the $6.00 area looks like the next target. Hold on tight.

Company Description

Sequenom, Inc. provides products, services, diagnostic testing, applications, and genetic analysis products that translate the results of genomic science into solutions for biomedical research, translational research, molecular medicine applications, and agricultural and livestock research.

Gold Member recommendation December 2012

Gold Membership Full allocation –  recommendation published on Dec. 7th.
Investment performance +7% – Stay the course.

No changes to the investment thesis.

Gold Member recommendations will not be mentioned for  60 days from the publication date.  Become a Gold Member here right now.

Here is a teaser from the December 2012 report -

Production of natural gas is “booming” in the U.S. and natural gas fields are being discovered and developed throughout the world.  The largest weakness of natural gas is its gaseous state.  Liquids are much easier to move from point A to point B.  This company is an expert in handling natural gas and their technology allows for the economic transportation over long distances.  This cost effective transportation gives companies the ability to take advantage of the worldwide pricing imbalance for natural gas.

This imbalance is the investment opportunity of the future.  As natural gas is transported from high supply locations with low prices to low supply locations with high prices, effectively arbitraging the price differential between worldwide locations, companies have the potential to make billions and billions of dollars.

Gold Member recommendation #1 January 2013

Gold MembershipFull allocation – recommendation published on Jan. 2nd.
Investment performance +2.5% – Stay the course.

No changes to the investment thesis.

Gold Member recommendations will not be mentioned for  60 days from the publication date.  Become a Gold Member here right now.

Here is a teaser from the January 2013 report -

The Story…

I need an investing thesis or story when I look at potential investments.

A thesis is important for a few reasons. First, a well thought out thesis forces the investor to organize their analysis in a logical manner which produces a conclusion – to invest or not. Secondly, it serves as a benchmark from which to analyze all future information. Thirdly, it includes technical analysis – when to buy, what price to pay, how much to risk, what is the potential return, when to stay invested or when to get out.

The story of natural gas began to unfold 5 – 8 years ago when technological advancements occurred that allowed the extraction of natural gas (and oil) from unconventional sources like shale rock. This new technology has allowed natural gas to be extracted from locations not previously deemed economically viable. This cost effective technology has sent resource reserve estimates sky-rocketing all over the world as seen in the map ….

…. Oil is a solid so it can be easily transported via pipelines and ships to any place on the planet. On the other hand, natural gas, because of its gaseous state, is not easily transported large distances economically and therefore local supply imbalances occur. The local supply imbalance forces prices lower in areas of great supply as graphically illustrated below…..

Rosetta Genomics (ROSG)

Half allocation – average cost $5.25
Recent price $4.65 – Investment performance -11%

Small position – stay the course.

This week in a press release the company said it will speak at a NYC investor conference on Monday January 7.

Company Description

Rosetta Genomics Ltd. develops and commercializes a range of micro-RNA-based molecular diagnostic tests. It offers diagnostic tests, including miRview mets product for identification of the origin of the primary tumor of metastases. The company was founded in 2000 and is based in Rehovot, Israel.

On a recent conference call the CEO suggested the total size of the market for their approved RNA based tests was in excess of $500 million – not including the future market for “pipeline” tests being developed.

Nautilus Minerals (NUSMF / NUS)

Quarter allocation – average cost $0.30
Recent price $0.45 – Investment performance +50%

A flyer, I am waiting on more information. See comments above.

Company Description

Nautilus Minerals Inc., an exploration stage company, engages in the exploration and development of the ocean floor for copper, gold, silver, and zinc deposits in Australasia. The company holds interest in Solwara 1, a seafloor copper-gold project located at 1600 meters water depth in the Bismarck Sea, Papua New Guinea.

Investment performance can be seen here

Investment performance, trading and investing policies can be seen here